Hatayspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 40%, yet in-form Alanyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hatayspor host Alanyaspor at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hatayspor — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Mersin Stadyumu: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Mersin Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Hatayspor have won 2, Alanyaspor 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus Alanyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 68% | Alanyaspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.42 xG and Alanyaspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.903 / defence 1.079 | Alanyaspor attack 0.874 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.242. Data: 57 Hatayspor games / 57 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 40% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alanyaspor (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 80% | Alanyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 40% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Hatayspor 1.42 / Alanyaspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.903 / def 1.079 | Alanyaspor attack 0.874 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 40% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hatayspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Hatayspor 2W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.90x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
40%
2.47
31%
3.27
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.59
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.17 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatayspor come into this having played 57 games, going 10W 14D 33L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.16 PPG from 57 outings (17W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 0.77 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hatayspor's home form reads 7W 9D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.35 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 14D 33L in their last 57 games (0.77 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.07 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2022, when Alanyaspor won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hatayspor
3
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 3, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Hatayspor 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 50%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hatayspor and 64% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 43% of games; Alanyaspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hatayspor's matches and 64% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, as Hatayspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.42 xG and Alanyaspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 40% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 29%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 68%, Alanyaspor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.77 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.