Gaziantep FK 5-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Sivasspor travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's home record at Gaziantep Stadyumu: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 1.70 PPG, Sivasspor 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gaziantep FK, 0 for Sivasspor and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 46% versus Sivasspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 46% | Sivasspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.73 xG and Sivasspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.324 / defence 1.072 | Sivasspor attack 0.879 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.104. Gaziantep FK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Gaziantep FK games / 23 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Sivasspor 4.55. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 60% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.73 / Sivasspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.324 / def 1.072 | Sivasspor attack 0.879 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sivasspor xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Gaziantep FK 5 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 53% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.00
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.77
1.04
Sivasspor xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
25.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.04 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 5L across 22 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.45 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 8W 2D 0L from 10 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.36 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 7W 10D 5L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Sivasspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.60 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2022, when Gaziantep FK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 60%, Sivasspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gaziantep FK) and 50% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gaziantep FK's games and 60% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 50% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Sivasspor 5-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.73 xG and Sivasspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.32 / defence 1.07 against Sivasspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 22%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 46%, Sivasspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.45 PPG, Sivasspor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.