Gaziantep FK 0-3 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK host Alanyaspor at Kalyon Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Kalyon Stadyumu this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Alanyaspor's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Gaziantep FK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gaziantep FK, 3 for Alanyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 46% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 57% | Alanyaspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG and Alanyaspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.782 / defence 1.048 | Alanyaspor attack 1.009 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.181. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Gaziantep FK games / 66 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Alanyaspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 60% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.14 / Alanyaspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.782 / def 1.048 | Alanyaspor attack 1.009 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 3 Alanyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 32% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Gaziantep FK 2W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.78x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
32%
3.17
32%
3.16
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.39
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.25 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 14W 14D 37L from 65 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 26L across 65 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 0.86 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 7W 9D 16L from 32 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 10D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.35 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 14W 14D 37L in their last 65 games (0.86 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 19W 20D 26L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.94 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Alanyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gaziantep FK) and 62% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 34% of games; Alanyaspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 56% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 62% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 0-3 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG and Alanyaspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Alanyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 37%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 57%, Alanyaspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 0.86 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.