Galatasaray 0-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Galatasaray at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RAMS Park plays host to Galatasaray versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Galatasaray have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at RAMS Park, Galatasaray have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 3.00 for Galatasaray, 2.60 for Fenerbahçe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Galatasaray 2W, Fenerbahçe 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Galatasaray goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 49% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Galatasaray 67% | Fenerbahçe 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.75 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.592 / defence 0.828 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.360 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.249. Galatasaray carry an above-average attack strength of 1.592 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Galatasaray games / 72 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 44% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 29%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Fenerbahçe 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 70% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: RAMS Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 44% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Galatasaray 1.75 / Fenerbahçe 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.592 / def 0.828 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.360 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Fenerbahçe xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at RAMS Park.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Galatasaray 0 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at RAMS Park.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 44% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
Record (5 meetings): Galatasaray 2W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 2W.
What form are Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (1.59) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.36x) against Galatasaray's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.72
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
3.15
1.41
Fenerbahçe xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.41 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 60W 7D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 54W 11D 7L from 72 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.60 PPG for Galatasaray against 2.40 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 2.81 PPG from 36 outings (33W 2D 1L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 27W 6D 3L from 36 away games — 2.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Galatasaray are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.49 scored and 1.01 conceded. Fenerbahçe's attacking output running into Galatasaray's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 60W 7D 5L in their last 72 games (2.60 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 54W 11D 7L in their last 72 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Galatasaray's home record (2.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 2.81 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Galatasaray or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 0-3 on 8 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Galatasaray
3
Draws
3
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 4, Fenerbahçe have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Galatasaray 3-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 61%, Fenerbahçe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Galatasaray and 58% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Galatasaray's games and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Galatasaray's matches and 58% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fenerbahçe defy the odds to beat Galatasaray 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Galatasaray 0-1 at RAMS Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.75 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.41 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Galatasaray fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.59 / defence 0.83 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.36 / defence 0.70, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 44% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 29%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fenerbahçe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 67%, Fenerbahçe 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 2.60 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.