Göztepe 2-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı plays host to Göztepe versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's home record at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kasımpaşa arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Göztepe 1W, Kasımpaşa 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 70% and Kasımpaşa 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 59% | Kasımpaşa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.866 / defence 1.317 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.034 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.187. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Göztepe games / 27 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 30% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 45%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 2.22. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 50% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 30% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Göztepe 1.27 / Kasımpaşa 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.866 / def 1.317 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.034 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Kasımpaşa xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Göztepe 2 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 30% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Göztepe and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa in?
Göztepe (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.87) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.03x) against Göztepe's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
30%
3.35
25%
4.00
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.89
1.62
Kasımpaşa xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.62 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Göztepe come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 6D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Göztepe against 1.07 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Göztepe's home form reads 4W 2D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.37 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Göztepe's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.08 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won 5-0 on 13 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Göztepe
1
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Göztepe 3-3 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 46%, Kasımpaşa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Göztepe) and 38% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 46% of games; Kasımpaşa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Göztepe's recent matches and 54% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Göztepe's recent games and 38% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Göztepe 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Göztepe 2-3 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.62 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.87 / defence 1.32 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.03 / defence 1.23, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 30% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 45%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 59%, Kasımpaşa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.00 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.