Fenerbahçe 6-0 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face İstanbulspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 38 as Fenerbahçe welcome İstanbulspor to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
İstanbulspor — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
İstanbulspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fenerbahçe, 0 for İstanbulspor and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 5–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
İstanbulspor in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 56% versus İstanbulspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 70% | İstanbulspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.96 xG and İstanbulspor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.512 / defence 0.938 | İstanbulspor attack 0.778 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.248. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.512 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. İstanbulspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Fenerbahçe games / 73 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 78% | Draw 15% | İstanbulspor 8%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | İstanbulspor 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.87 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 6.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | İstanbulspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 78% | Draw 15% | İstanbulspor 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 58% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.96 / İstanbulspor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.512 / def 0.938 | İstanbulspor attack 0.778 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.91
İstanbulspor xG
58%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor?
Fenerbahçe 6 - 0 İstanbulspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 78% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor?
Record (3 meetings): Fenerbahçe 2W | Draws 1 | İstanbulspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.51) and İstanbulspor's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.86
8%
13.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.87
0.91
İstanbulspor xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.86
15%
Draw
13.18
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
5%
19.32
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.91 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.41 PPG on a 55W 11D 7L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
İstanbulspor's form line: 16W 12D 45L from 73 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against İstanbulspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.39 PPG from 36 outings (27W 5D 4L).
On the road, İstanbulspor have gone 8W 6D 22L from 36 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.03 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
İstanbulspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 55W 11D 7L in their last 73 games (2.41 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 16W 12D 45L in their last 73 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or İstanbulspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.39 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or İstanbulspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, İstanbulspor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
0
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 3, İstanbulspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2024, when Fenerbahçe 6-0 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 64%, İstanbulspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Fenerbahçe and 56% for İstanbulspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; İstanbulspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 42% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 56% of İstanbulspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 6-0 hammering of İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat İstanbulspor 6-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.96 xG and İstanbulspor 0.91 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. İstanbulspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.51 / defence 0.94 against İstanbulspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 78% | Draw 15% | İstanbulspor 8%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 70%, İstanbulspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.