Fenerbahçe 4-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Sivasspor at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Sivasspor, with 3 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 52% versus Sivasspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.98 xG and Sivasspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.212 / defence 0.842 | Sivasspor attack 1.096 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.308. Data: 48 Fenerbahçe games / 49 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Sivasspor 4.55. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 50% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.98 / Sivasspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.212 / def 0.842 | Sivasspor attack 1.096 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sivasspor xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 54% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Record (6 meetings): Fenerbahçe 3W | Draws 3 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.28
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.19
1.21
Sivasspor xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
3%
32.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.21 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.54 PPG on a 38W 8D 2L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 19W 13D 16L from 48 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.48 PPG from 23 outings (18W 3D 2L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 8W 5D 10L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 60%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 38W 8D 2L in their last 48 games (2.54 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Sivasspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.48 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
3
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Sivasspor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 65%, Sivasspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Fenerbahçe and 56% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sivasspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Fenerbahçe's games and 61% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 56% of Sivasspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Sivasspor 4-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.98 xG and Sivasspor 1.21 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.21 / defence 0.84 against Sivasspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 22%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 65%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sivasspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.