Fenerbahçe 4-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Sivasspor at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig (matchday 14). Kick-off is Monday 4 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fenerbahçe stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Fenerbahçe at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Sivasspor have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Fenerbahçe's games and 60% of Sivasspor's (from Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Sivasspor 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 3–1 Sivasspor — a Fenerbahçe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 51% versus Sivasspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 71% | Sivasspor 55%). Note also that Sivasspor surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Fenerbahçe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.73 xG and Sivasspor 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.535 / defence 1.064 | Sivasspor attack 1.048 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.241. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.535 — their 2.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 49 games and Sivasspor's last 49.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 18% | Sivasspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.53 | Draw 5.57 | Sivasspor 5.94. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.73 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 14 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Monday 4 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 18% | Sivasspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Fenerbahçe 2.73 / Sivasspor 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.535 / def 1.064 | Sivasspor attack 1.048 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sivasspor xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 4 December 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 14) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 65% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.73. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 49 games and Sivasspor's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.57
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
4.11
1.39
Sivasspor xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.57
18%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
7%
15.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
1%
91.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.39 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 36W 6D 7L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Sivasspor's form line: 14W 14D 21L from 49 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.42 PPG from their last 24 home games (19W 1D 4L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 2D 13L from their last 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 61%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 36W 6D 7L in their last 49 games (2.33 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Sivasspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.42 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 4-0 Sivasspor.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
3
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Sivasspor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2025: Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 54%, Sivasspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Fenerbahçe and 71% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sivasspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 54% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 71% of Sivasspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 91% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Sivasspor 4-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.73 xG and Sivasspor 1.39 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.53 / defence 1.06 against Sivasspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 18% | Sivasspor 17%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 71%, Sivasspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.88 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.