Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Wednesday 17 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Vodafone Park this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Vodafone Park this season.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Adana Demirspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 58% versus Adana Demirspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Adana Demirspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.181 / defence 1.198 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.973 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.376. Data: 69 Fatih Karagümrük games / 69 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 3.12. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 80% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 / Adana Demirspor 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.181 / def 1.198 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.973 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Adana Demirspor xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 17 May 2023 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 46% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
Record (3 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.18x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.97x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
46%
2.15
22%
4.61
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.57
1.60
Adana Demirspor xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
4%
22.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.60 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 27W 20D 22L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 32W 19D 18L from 69 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.67 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.62 PPG from 34 outings (15W 10D 9L).
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 11W 10D 13L from 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.83 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 27W 20D 22L in their last 69 games (1.46 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 32W 19D 18L in their last 69 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.62 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 5-0 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
4
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2024, when Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 62%, Adana Demirspor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 59% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 65% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 59% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.60 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.18 / defence 1.20 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 32%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Adana Demirspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 61%, Adana Demirspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.46 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.