Eyüpspor 0-1 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Eyüpspor welcome Kocaelispor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Kocaelispor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.00 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Kocaelispor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Kocaelispor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Kocaelispor in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 46% versus Kocaelispor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Eyüpspor 42% | Kocaelispor 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.27 xG and Kocaelispor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.868 / defence 1.056 | Kocaelispor attack 0.709 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.226. Data: 60 Eyüpspor games / 24 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 23%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Kocaelispor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Kocaelispor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 9 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Eyüpspor 1.27 / Kocaelispor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.868 / def 1.056 | Kocaelispor attack 0.709 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kocaelispor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 9 March 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Eyüpspor 0 - 1 Kocaelispor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 41% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Kocaelispor 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Kocaelispor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.87) and Kocaelispor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kocaelispor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
41%
2.46
36%
2.74
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.19
0.92
Kocaelispor xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.92 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 7D 12L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kocaelispor sit at 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 0.92 PPG, Kocaelispor on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Kocaelispor have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kocaelispor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.88 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.18 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
2
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kocaelispor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 46%, Kocaelispor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Eyüpspor) and 36% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 36% of games; Kocaelispor in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 46% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 36% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Kocaelispor defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kocaelispor beat Eyüpspor 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.27 xG and Kocaelispor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Kocaelispor attack 0.71 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 23%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Kocaelispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 42%, Kocaelispor 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 0.92 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kocaelispor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.