Eyüpspor 2-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Beşiktaş travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Beşiktaş, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Eyüpspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Eyüpspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Beşiktaş 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Beşiktaş 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.00 xG and Beşiktaş 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.801 / defence 1.071 | Beşiktaş attack 1.215 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.286. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Eyüpspor games / 54 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 19% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 50%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Beşiktaş 2.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Beşiktaş 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 19% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Eyüpspor 1.00 / Beşiktaş 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.801 / def 1.071 | Beşiktaş attack 1.215 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 26 January 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Eyüpspor 2 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 19% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.80x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
19%
5.26
31%
3.21
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
5.26
19%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
4%
28.06
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.67 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 18W 13D 23L from 54 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 12L across 54 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 12W 6D 9L from 27 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 10W 12D 5L across 27 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.67 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 26W 16D 12L in their last 54 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 52%, Beşiktaş 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Eyüpspor) and 33% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 56% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 33% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş finished level at 2-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.00 xG and Beşiktaş 1.67 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Beşiktaş attack 1.22 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 19% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 50%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Beşiktaş 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.