Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Beşiktaş welcome Kasımpaşa to Vodafone Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Vodafone Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Vodafone Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beşiktaş at 1.30 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beşiktaş, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 62% and Kasımpaşa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 55% | Kasımpaşa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.68 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.111 / defence 0.795 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.864 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.364. Beşiktaş's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Beşiktaş games / 54 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 54% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 20%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 5.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 54% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Beşiktaş 1.68 / Kasımpaşa 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.111 / def 0.795 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.864 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Kasımpaşa xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 54% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.11) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.87
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.61
0.94
Kasımpaşa xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
4%
26.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.94 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 22W 19D 12L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 20W 10D 23L from 53 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.60 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.88 PPG from 25 outings (13W 8D 4L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 22W 19D 12L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 10D 23L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.88 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 60%, Kasımpaşa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beşiktaş) and 52% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beşiktaş's games and 52% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beşiktaş's matches and 52% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.68 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.94 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.11 / defence 0.80 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 54% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 20%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 55%, Kasımpaşa 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.60 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.