Beşiktaş 2-4 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Göztepe travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 2D 2L at Tüpraş Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Göztepe — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.80 PPG, Göztepe 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Göztepe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Göztepe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Göztepe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 46% | Göztepe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.96 xG and Göztepe 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.127 / defence 1.012 | Göztepe attack 0.852 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.289. Data: 49 Beşiktaş games / 11 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 20%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Göztepe 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 70% | Göztepe 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Beşiktaş 1.96 / Göztepe 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.127 / def 1.012 | Göztepe attack 0.852 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Göztepe xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Göztepe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Göztepe kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Beşiktaş 2 - 4 Göztepe.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 55% chance of winning, Göztepe a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beşiktaş and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Göztepe in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Göztepe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.98
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.07
1.11
Göztepe xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
36.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.11 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beşiktaş come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 3D 2L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.91 PPG, Göztepe on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beşiktaş's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Göztepe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 games (1.91 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Göztepe away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.40 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Göztepe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Göztepe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Beşiktaş won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
2
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Göztepe have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 60%, Göztepe 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beşiktaş) and 40% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Göztepe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beşiktaş's games and 60% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 40% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Göztepe tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Beşiktaş 2-4 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.96 xG and Göztepe 1.11 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Göztepe outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.13 / defence 1.01 against Göztepe attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 20%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Göztepe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 46%, Göztepe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.91 PPG, Göztepe 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.