Antalyaspor 5-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 3 as Antalyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 2.10 PPG versus Trabzonspor's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Antalyaspor have won 1, Trabzonspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antalyaspor 55% and Trabzonspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 50% | Trabzonspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.18 xG and Trabzonspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.016 / defence 0.931 | Trabzonspor attack 1.102 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.317. Data: 40 Antalyaspor games / 40 Trabzonspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 33% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 33% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Antalyaspor 1.18 / Trabzonspor 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.016 / def 0.931 | Trabzonspor attack 1.102 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Antalyaspor 5 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 33% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.02) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.75
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.53
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.35 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 17W 11D 12L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 25W 12D 3L from 40 games, 2.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 12W 5D 3L from 20 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.80 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 65%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 17W 11D 12L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 12D 3L in their last 40 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.80 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Antalyaspor at 65%, Trabzonspor at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 55% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Antalyaspor's games and 65% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 55% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Trabzonspor 5-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.18 xG and Trabzonspor 1.35 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Trabzonspor attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 33% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 50%, Trabzonspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.