Antalyaspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antalyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fenerbahçe, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
It is worth noting that Fenerbahçe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 61% versus Fenerbahçe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 48% | Fenerbahçe 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.11 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.018 / defence 0.936 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.453 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.295. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Antalyaspor games / 44 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 23% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 52%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 1.92. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 23% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Antalyaspor 1.11 / Fenerbahçe 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.018 / def 0.936 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.453 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Fenerbahçe xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Antalyaspor 0 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 23% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (6 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 5W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.02) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.45x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
23%
4.35
25%
3.94
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.87
1.76
Fenerbahçe xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
4%
25.26
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.76 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 14W 15D 15L from 44 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 35W 7D 2L across 44 games — 2.55 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 10W 9D 3L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 18W 4D 0L across 22 trips, a 2.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.57 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 14W 15D 15L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 35W 7D 2L in their last 44 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.77 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.64 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 59%, Fenerbahçe 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Antalyaspor) and 46% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 64%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 36% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Antalyaspor 0-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.11 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.76 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.45 / defence 0.74, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 23% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 52%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 48%, Fenerbahçe 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.