Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Beşiktaş at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's home record at Alanya Oba Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beşiktaş — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 63% and Beşiktaş 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.45 xG and Beşiktaş 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.073 / defence 1.015 | Beşiktaş attack 1.081 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.211. Data: 35 Alanyaspor games / 35 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 34%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Alanyaspor 1.45 / Beşiktaş 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.073 / def 1.015 | Beşiktaş attack 1.081 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Beşiktaş xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (9 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 5 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.07x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
39%
2.53
27%
3.74
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.78
1.33
Beşiktaş xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.33 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 17D 11L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.80 PPG from 35 outings (18W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 6W 5D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 7W 17D 11L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.35 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 47%, Beşiktaş 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Alanyaspor) and 47% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 35%; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 47% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 47% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.45 xG and Beşiktaş 1.33 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Beşiktaş attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 34%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Beşiktaş 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.