Alanyaspor 1-3 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 45%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Antalyaspor travel to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this season.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Antalyaspor's 2.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Alanyaspor's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 1 for Antalyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 59% versus Antalyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 56% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.63 xG and Antalyaspor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.222 / defence 1.463 | Antalyaspor attack 0.685 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.217. Data: 32 Alanyaspor games / 32 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Antalyaspor 3.70. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 70% | Antalyaspor 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Alanyaspor 1.63 / Antalyaspor 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.222 / def 1.463 | Antalyaspor attack 0.685 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Antalyaspor xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 3 Antalyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.66
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.85
1.22
Antalyaspor xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
5%
18.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.22 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 15W 7D 10L from 32 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 11L across 32 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.62 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 7W 4D 5L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 4W 4D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 15W 7D 10L in their last 32 games (1.62 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 13W 8D 11L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
4
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 62%, Antalyaspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Alanyaspor) and 44% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 38% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 44% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Alanyaspor 1-3 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.63 xG and Antalyaspor 1.22 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.22 / defence 1.46 against Antalyaspor attack 0.69 / defence 1.08, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 27%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 56%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.62 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.