Alanyaspor 3-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Adana Demirspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Adana Demirspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 3 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Adana Demirspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 64% | Adana Demirspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.30 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.942 / defence 1.145 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.818 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.161. Data: 61 Alanyaspor games / 61 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Adana Demirspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Adana Demirspor lead the H2H ledger, but Alanyaspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 80% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Alanyaspor 1.30 / Adana Demirspor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.942 / def 1.145 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.818 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (5 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
38%
2.60
33%
3.00
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.09 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 18D 26L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.64 PPG from 61 outings (27W 19D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (8W 12D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.84 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 games (1.13 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 19D 15L in their last 61 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 57%, Adana Demirspor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Alanyaspor) and 53% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Alanyaspor's games and 70% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Alanyaspor's matches and 53% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor finished level at 3-3 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.30 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 28%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 64%, Adana Demirspor 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.