Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 48%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Uthai Thani vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Uthai Thani welcome Port FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Uthai Thani — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 3D 2L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Uthai Thani's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Uthai Thani, 2 for Port FC and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 59% versus Port FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 48% | Port FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.70 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.206 / defence 0.917 | Port FC attack 1.150 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.070. Data: 56 Uthai Thani games / 57 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 48% | Draw 29% | Port FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Port FC 4.35. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 60% | Port FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 48% | Draw 29% | Port FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Uthai Thani 1.70 / Port FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.206 / def 0.917 | Port FC attack 1.150 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Port FC xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Port FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Uthai Thani 0 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Port FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 48% chance of winning, Port FC a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Uthai Thani and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 3 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Port FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.49
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.83
1.13
Port FC xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
4%
23.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.13 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 19D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 56 outings (27W 15D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Uthai Thani's home form reads 11W 10D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.33 points per game from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.79 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Port FC have gone 27W 15D 14L in their last 56 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Port FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.59 PPG; Port FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Port FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Port FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 0, Port FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 59%, Port FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Uthai Thani) and 44% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Uthai Thani's games and 52% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 44% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Port FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Port FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Uthai Thani 0-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.70 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Port FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 48% | Draw 29% | Port FC 23%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Port FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 48%, Port FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.