Uthai Thani 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Uthai Thani welcome Port FC to Uthai Thani Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Uthai Thani — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 4D 1L at Uthai Thani Province Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.60 (Port FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Uthai Thani, 1 for Port FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (42 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 55% and Port FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 55% | Port FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.68 xG and Port FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.057 / defence 0.977 | Port FC attack 1.175 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.143. Data: 43 Uthai Thani games / 42 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 29% | Port FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Port FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 70% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 29% | Port FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Uthai Thani 1.68 / Port FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.057 / def 0.977 | Port FC attack 1.175 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Port FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Port FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Port FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 44% chance of winning, Port FC a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Uthai Thani and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Record (2 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 1 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.45
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.99
1.31
Port FC xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.31 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 11D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.88 PPG from 42 outings (22W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Uthai Thani's home form reads 7W 7D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (7W 9D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 69%.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Port FC have gone 22W 13D 7L in their last 42 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.56 PPG; Port FC away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Port FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 0, Port FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 61%, Port FC at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Uthai Thani) and 61% (Port FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Uthai Thani's games and 72% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 61% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Port FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Port FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Port FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Uthai Thani and Port FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.68 xG and Port FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Port FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 29% | Port FC 27%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 55%, Port FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (42 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (42 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.