Uthai Thani 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Uthai Thani Province Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 3W 5D 2L at Uthai Thani Province Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Uthai Thani, 1.50 for Lamphun Warrior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Uthai Thani 1W, Lamphun Warrior 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 54% versus Lamphun Warrior 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 51% | Lamphun Warrior 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.21 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.856 / defence 0.760 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.847 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.257. Uthai Thani's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Uthai Thani games / 59 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 23%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Lamphun Warrior 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Uthai Thani 50% | Lamphun Warrior 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Uthai Thani 1.21 / Lamphun Warrior 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.856 / def 0.760 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.847 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Lamphun Warrior xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 44% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (3 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.85x) against Uthai Thani's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.09
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.02
0.81
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.81 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 18W 17D 24L from 59 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 24L across 59 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.20 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 10W 12D 7L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 4W 10D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.36 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Current Season
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.45 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Uthai Thani won 1-4 on 6 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Uthai Thani
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
From 7 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-4 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 59%, Lamphun Warrior 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Uthai Thani) and 55% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 48% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 55% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.21 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.81 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.86 / defence 0.76 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 23%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 51%, Lamphun Warrior 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.20 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.