Uthai Thani 2-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Uthai Thani welcome Kanchanaburi to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 3W 3D 4L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kanchanaburi — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Kanchanaburi have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Uthai Thani carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kanchanaburi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Uthai Thani, 0 for Kanchanaburi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Uthai Thani trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Kanchanaburi trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 71% and Kanchanaburi 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 52% | Kanchanaburi 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.37 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.221 / defence 0.953 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.706 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.142. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Uthai Thani games / 21 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 72% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 9%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Kanchanaburi 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Uthai Thani 60% | Kanchanaburi 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 72% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 50% | xG Uthai Thani 2.37 / Kanchanaburi 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.221 / def 0.953 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.706 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Kanchanaburi xG
50%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi?
Uthai Thani 2 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 72% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 1 | Kanchanaburi 0W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Kanchanaburi's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. The same calculation in reverse, Kanchanaburi's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.32
9%
10.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.14
0.77
Kanchanaburi xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
10.82
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
9%
10.70
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
1%
115.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.77 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 5W 8D 8L from 21 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kanchanaburi, meanwhile, have gone 2W 10D 9L across 21 games — 0.76 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.10 PPG, Kanchanaburi on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 3W 4D 4L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kanchanaburi's away record stands at 0W 4D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.36 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kanchanaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 5W 8D 8L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 10D 9L in their last 21 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.18 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
0
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Kanchanaburi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Uthai Thani 2-1 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 64%, Kanchanaburi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Uthai Thani) and 36% (Kanchanaburi).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Kanchanaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Uthai Thani's games and 54% of Kanchanaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 36% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Kanchanaburi in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Uthai Thani edge out Kanchanaburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Kanchanaburi 2-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.37 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.77 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.71 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 72% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 9%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 52%, Kanchanaburi 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.10 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.