Suphanburi 2-4 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suphanburi host Khon Kaen United at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suphanburi — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.78 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suphanburi have posted 1W 3D 1L at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Khon Kaen United have recorded 2W 1D 6L from 9 outings — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suphanburi at 0.78 PPG versus Khon Kaen United's 0.78. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Suphanburi in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Khon Kaen United in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suphanburi 67% versus Khon Kaen United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 56% | Khon Kaen United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.45 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 1.001 / defence 1.314 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.617 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 1.218. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Suphanburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Suphanburi games / 9 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 48% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 26%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Khon Kaen United 3.85. Suphanburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suphanburi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suphanburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Suphanburi 80% | Khon Kaen United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 48% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Suphanburi 1.45 / Khon Kaen United 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 1.001 / def 1.314 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.617 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.002 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Khon Kaen United xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Suphanburi 2 - 4 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 48% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suphanburi's attack rating (1.00) and Khon Kaen United's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Suphanburi's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.44
0.99
Khon Kaen United xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Suphanburi and 0.99 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suphanburi come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 4D 4L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suphanburi on 0.78 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Suphanburi's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Suphanburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khon Kaen United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suphanburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suphanburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.67 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suphanburi at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Suphanburi's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suphanburi at home: 1.25 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Suphanburi
0
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 0, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2022, when Khon Kaen United 2-0 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suphanburi 75%, Khon Kaen United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Suphanburi) and 50% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Khon Kaen United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Suphanburi's games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suphanburi vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Suphanburi's recent games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suphanburi and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Suphanburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Suphanburi 2-4 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.45 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.99 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Khon Kaen United outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 1.00 / defence 1.31 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.62 / defence 1.44, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 48% | Draw 27% | Khon Kaen United 26%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Khon Kaen United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 56%, Khon Kaen United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suphanburi's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suphanburi 0.78 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Suphanburi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.