Suphanburi 0-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suphanburi vs Chiangrai United encounter.

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Full Analysis

Suphanburi Municipality Stadium plays host to Suphanburi versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Wednesday 10 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Suphanburi have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Suphanburi's home record at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Chiangrai United (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chiangrai United are 1.00 PPG clear of Suphanburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Suphanburi register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, Chiangrai United in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading

Suphanburi half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suphanburi 73% and Chiangrai United 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 64% | Chiangrai United 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.32 xG and Chiangrai United 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 0.991 / defence 1.565 | Chiangrai United attack 1.213 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.255. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Suphanburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Chiangrai United have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 2.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Suphanburi games / 11 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suphanburi 20% | Draw 19% | Chiangrai United 61%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 5.00 | Draw 5.26 | Chiangrai United 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suphanburi 83% | Chiangrai United 75% BTTS from recent games.

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