Sukhothai FC 2-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 43%, yet in-form Rayong FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thalay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thalay Luang Stadium: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rayong FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rayong FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sukhothai FC 1W, Rayong FC 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Rayong FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sukhothai FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 59% and Rayong FC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 51% | Rayong FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.27 xG and Rayong FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.803 / defence 0.863 | Rayong FC attack 0.923 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.140. Data: 52 Sukhothai FC games / 51 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 43% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Rayong FC 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rayong FC (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sukhothai FC 70% | Rayong FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 43% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.27 / Rayong FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.803 / def 0.863 | Rayong FC attack 0.923 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Rayong FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 43% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC?
Record (3 meetings): Sukhothai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 2W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.80) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (0.92x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
43%
2.35
33%
3.02
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.18
0.91
Rayong FC xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
7%
14.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.91 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 51 games, going 13W 18D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rayong FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 51 outings (15W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.18 for Rayong FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 12W 8D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rayong FC have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 71%.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 18D 20L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.69 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
2
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Rayong FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Sukhothai FC 2-1 Rayong FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Sukhothai FC, 65% for Rayong FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sukhothai FC) and 58% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sukhothai FC's games and 65% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 58% of Rayong FC's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Rayong FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Rayong FC 2-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.27 xG and Rayong FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.86 against Rayong FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 43% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 24%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 51%, Rayong FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.12 PPG, Rayong FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.