Sukhothai FC 2-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sukhothai FC at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Police Tero make the trip to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to face Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Police Tero's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Police Tero have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Sukhothai FC, 0.60 for Police Tero — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Police Tero in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sukhothai FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sukhothai FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Police Tero half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 54% and Police Tero 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 54% | Police Tero 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.31 xG and Police Tero 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.963 / defence 1.087 | Police Tero attack 0.992 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.178. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Sukhothai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Sukhothai FC games / 57 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 60% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 19%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Police Tero 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Police Tero 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 60% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.31 / Police Tero 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.963 / def 1.087 | Police Tero attack 0.992 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Police Tero xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 60% chance of winning, Police Tero a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Police Tero?
Record (3 meetings): Sukhothai FC 2W | Draws 1 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Police Tero in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Police Tero (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.96) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (0.99x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.86
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.58
1.27
Police Tero xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
2%
51.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.27 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 16W 15D 26L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 17W 17D 23L from 57 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.19 for Police Tero. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (12W 6D 10L).
On the road, Police Tero have gone 7W 6D 15L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.30 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 67%.
Last 57 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 15D 26L in their last 57 games (1.11 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 17W 17D 23L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Police Tero away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sukhothai FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Police Tero?
From 4 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Police Tero have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Sukhothai FC 2-0 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Police Tero?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 46%, Police Tero 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sukhothai FC and 68% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Sukhothai FC's games and 71% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 68% of Police Tero's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Police Tero tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Police Tero 2-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.31 xG and Police Tero 1.27 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Police Tero landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Police Tero attack 0.99 / defence 1.45, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 60% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 19%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 54%, Police Tero 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Police Tero's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.11 PPG, Police Tero 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.