Sukhothai FC 4-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 37%, yet in-form Lamphun Warrior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sukhothai FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sukhothai FC at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lamphun Warrior are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sukhothai FC, 3 for Lamphun Warrior and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Sukhothai FC 0–3 Lamphun Warrior — a Lamphun Warrior win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 64% and Lamphun Warrior 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sukhothai FC 69% | Lamphun Warrior 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.60 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.223 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.002 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.737 / away 1.209. Sukhothai FC's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamphun Warrior's projected output up. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 36 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 36.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 32%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.68 | Draw 3.29 | Lamphun Warrior 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 7 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Sukhothai FC 1.60 / Lamphun Warrior 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.978 / def 1.223 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.002 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.737 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Lamphun Warrior xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior FAQs
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Sukhothai FC 4 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 7) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 37% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sukhothai FC's last 36 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.29
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.48
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.48 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 6D 20L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 11W 10D 15L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.00 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 18 home games (8W 2D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 6D 10L from their last 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 61%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Sukhothai FC (Home) vs Lamphun Warrior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior Form FAQs
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 6D 20L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won Sukhothai FC 4-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
6
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 56%, Lamphun Warrior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sukhothai FC and 61% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 61% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 67% of Lamphun Warrior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sukhothai FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Lamphun Warrior 4-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.60 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.48 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 32%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 69%, Lamphun Warrior 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.