Sukhothai FC 1-1 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 38%, yet in-form Ayutthaya FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thalay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Ayutthaya FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC at Thalay Luang Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ayutthaya FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ayutthaya FC arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sukhothai FC 0W, Ayutthaya FC 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Ayutthaya FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Ayutthaya FC 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 32% | Ayutthaya FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.778 / defence 0.866 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.003 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.127. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Sukhothai FC games / 19 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Ayutthaya FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ayutthaya FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sukhothai FC 70% | Ayutthaya FC 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.12 / Ayutthaya FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.778 / def 0.866 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.003 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Ayutthaya FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 1 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 38% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.78x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (1.00x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.14
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.10
0.98
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.98 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 4W 8D 7L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 6W 7D 6L from 19 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.32 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (3W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 67%, Ayutthaya FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sukhothai FC) and 56% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 33%; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sukhothai FC's games and 56% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 56% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 22% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.78 / defence 0.87 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 30%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 32%, Ayutthaya FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.05 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.