Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Ratchaburi, 1.50 for Uthai Thani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Uthai Thani and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 56% versus Uthai Thani 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 54% | Uthai Thani 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.53 xG and Uthai Thani 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.904 / defence 0.879 | Uthai Thani attack 0.932 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.125. Data: 50 Ratchaburi games / 51 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 21%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Uthai Thani 4.76. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 30% | Uthai Thani 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ratchaburi 1.53 / Uthai Thani 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.904 / def 0.879 | Uthai Thani attack 0.932 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Uthai Thani xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Ratchaburi 3 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani part of?
Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 50% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.90x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.93x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.46
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.45
0.92
Uthai Thani xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
5%
21.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.92 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 10D 13L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.24 PPG from 50 outings (15W 17D 18L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 15W 6D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (5W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.40 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 27W 10D 13L in their last 50 games (1.82 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 15W 17D 18L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Uthai Thani away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.12 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 46%, Uthai Thani 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ratchaburi) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 62% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Uthai Thani 3-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.53 xG and Uthai Thani 0.92 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Uthai Thani attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 21%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Uthai Thani 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.