Ratchaburi 4-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya meet at Ratchaburi Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Nong Bua Pitchaya have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Ratchaburi's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Nong Bua Pitchaya's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Ratchaburi 3–5 Nong Bua Pitchaya — a Nong Bua Pitchaya win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Nong Bua Pitchaya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 54% and Nong Bua Pitchaya 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 54% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ratchaburi surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Nong Bua Pitchaya have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.05 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.006 / defence 0.857 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.695 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.216. Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ratchaburi's projected output up. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 53 games and Nong Bua Pitchaya's last 24.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 68% | Draw 20% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.47 | Draw 4.91 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 8.56. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (68%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Nong Bua Pitchaya's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 50% (last 10 home games) | Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Ratchaburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 68% | Draw 20% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ratchaburi 2.05 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.006 / def 0.857 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.695 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya FAQs
What time does Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Ratchaburi 4 - 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 68% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.01x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.69x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Ratchaburi's last 53 games and Nong Bua Pitchaya's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
68%
1.47
20%
4.91
12%
8.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.78
0.72
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
8.56
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
2%
66.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.72 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 7D 6L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across their last 11 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.27 points per game from their last 11 away games (0W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.38 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 67%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Ratchaburi (Home) vs Nong Bua Pitchaya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ratchaburi
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Form FAQs
What form are Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 11W 7D 6L in their last 24 games (1.67 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.00 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.27 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won Ratchaburi 4-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya on 9 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ratchaburi have won 4, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Ratchaburi 4-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 54%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ratchaburi) and 73% (Nong Bua Pitchaya). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ratchaburi's games and 73% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Ratchaburi's matches and 73% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's.
Do Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 64% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 4-0 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.05 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.72 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 68% | Draw 20% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.