Ratchaburi 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Ratchaburi welcome Chiangrai United to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 4D 0L at Dragon Solar Park — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 1.80 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Chiangrai United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 43% versus Chiangrai United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 35% | Chiangrai United 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.28 xG and Chiangrai United 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.885 / defence 0.765 | Chiangrai United attack 0.929 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.165. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 38 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 47% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 24%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Chiangrai United 4.17. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Chiangrai United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 47% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Ratchaburi 1.28 / Chiangrai United 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.885 / def 0.765 | Chiangrai United attack 0.929 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Chiangrai United xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 47% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Record (2 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.89x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.44
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.11
0.83
Chiangrai United xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.83 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 14W 10D 13L from 37 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 11L across 37 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.41 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 10W 4D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.19 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Chiangrai United in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 17W 9D 11L in their last 37 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chiangrai United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.84 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Chiangrai United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 53%, Chiangrai United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ratchaburi) and 42% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 47% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 42% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United finished level at 1-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.28 xG and Chiangrai United 0.83 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.89 / defence 0.77 against Chiangrai United attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 47% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 24%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 35%, Chiangrai United 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.41 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.