Ratchaburi 0-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Ratchaburi welcome Chiangrai United to Mitr Phol Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 4W 1D 2L at Mitr Phol Stadium — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Mitr Phol Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 5W 0D 1L from 6 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 1.50 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 0 for Chiangrai United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United trading profile (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 60% versus Chiangrai United 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Chiangrai United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.32 xG and Chiangrai United 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.192 / defence 1.270 | Chiangrai United attack 1.051 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.028 / away 1.088. Data: 16 Ratchaburi games / 15 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 34% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 40%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Chiangrai United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 71% | Chiangrai United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 34% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Ratchaburi 1.32 / Chiangrai United 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.192 / def 1.270 | Chiangrai United attack 1.051 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.028 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Chiangrai United xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Ratchaburi 0 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 34% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.19x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
34%
2.90
25%
3.94
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.78
1.45
Chiangrai United xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.45 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 4W 4D 7L from 15 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 6L across 15 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chiangrai United by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 5W 0D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.53 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.20 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 7W 2D 6L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.67 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Chiangrai United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ratchaburi at 83%, Chiangrai United at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ratchaburi) and 50% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Ratchaburi's games and 50% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ratchaburi's matches and 50% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Ratchaburi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Ratchaburi 0-1 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.32 xG and Chiangrai United 1.45 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.19 / defence 1.27 against Chiangrai United attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 34% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 40%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 53%, Chiangrai United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.