Ratchaburi 0-1 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Bangkok United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Bangkok United (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bangkok United arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ratchaburi 1W, Bangkok United 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bangkok United half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 47% versus Bangkok United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 33% | Bangkok United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 0.89 xG and Bangkok United 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.909 / defence 0.957 | Bangkok United attack 1.174 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.165. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.680 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Ratchaburi games / 49 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 23% | Draw 32% | Bangkok United 44%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Bangkok United 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bangkok United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Bangkok United 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 23% | Draw 32% | Bangkok United 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Ratchaburi 0.89 / Bangkok United 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.909 / def 0.957 | Bangkok United attack 1.174 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Bangkok United xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Ratchaburi 0 - 1 Bangkok United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 23% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ratchaburi and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
Record (3 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 1 | Bangkok United 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Bangkok United's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (1.17x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
23%
4.28
32%
3.08
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.20
1.31
Bangkok United xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.31 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 18W 15D 16L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 27W 12D 10L from 49 games, 1.90 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (11W 8D 5L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 10W 5D 9L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bangkok United's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.78 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 18W 15D 16L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 27W 12D 10L in their last 49 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Bangkok United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.71 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
6
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Bangkok United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bangkok United 1-4 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 58%, Bangkok United 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ratchaburi) and 33% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 33%; Bangkok United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 38% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 33% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Ratchaburi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Ratchaburi 0-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 0.89 xG and Bangkok United 1.31 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Bangkok United attack 1.17 / defence 0.68, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 23% | Draw 32% | Bangkok United 44%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 33%, Bangkok United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bangkok United's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Bangkok United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.