Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Rasi Salai United travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Prachuap — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rasi Salai United stand at 0W 1D 4L from 5 Thai League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rasi Salai United away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Rasi Salai United trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 40% and Rasi Salai United 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Prachuap 60% | Rasi Salai United 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 2.52 xG and Rasi Salai United 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.000 / defence 0.836 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.988 / defence 1.726. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Rasi Salai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.726 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Prachuap games / 5 Rasi Salai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 68% | Draw 18% | Rasi Salai United 14%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Rasi Salai United 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Rasi Salai United 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 68% | Draw 18% | Rasi Salai United 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 61% | xG Prachuap 2.52 / Rasi Salai United 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.000 / def 0.836 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.988 / def 1.726 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Rasi Salai United xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 68% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Prachuap and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Rasi Salai United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 1.00x the league average against Rasi Salai United's defence at 1.73x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rasi Salai United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
68%
1.46
18%
5.53
14%
7.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.58
1.07
Rasi Salai United xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
7.35
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
8%
12.37
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
1%
90.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.07 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap's recent record stands at 4W 0D 1L from 5 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rasi Salai United, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Prachuap by 2.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rasi Salai United heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have Prachuap or Rasi Salai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rasi Salai United in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rasi Salai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Prachuap at 40%, Rasi Salai United at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Prachuap and 80% for Rasi Salai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Rasi Salai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Prachuap's games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Prachuap's matches and 80% of Rasi Salai United's.
Do Prachuap and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.