Prachuap 1-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sam Ao Stadium this season.
Port FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Prachuap against 1.10 for Port FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Prachuap have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Port FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Prachuap lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 56% versus Port FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 52% | Port FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.04 xG and Port FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.819 / defence 1.275 | Port FC attack 0.976 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 0.975 / away 1.082. Port FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Prachuap games / 23 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 29% | Port FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Port FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 60% | Port FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 29% | Port FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Prachuap 1.04 / Port FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.819 / def 1.275 | Port FC attack 0.976 / def 1.307 | league avg home 0.975 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Port FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Port FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Port FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Port FC kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Prachuap 1 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Port FC part of?
Prachuap vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 28% chance of winning, Port FC a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Prachuap and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Port FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.82) and Port FC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.98x) against Prachuap's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
28%
3.57
29%
3.42
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.39
1.35
Port FC xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
7%
13.70
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.35 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 6D 11L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 9W 5D 9L from 23 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Prachuap against 1.39 for Port FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 0.82 PPG from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Port FC have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.82 PPG; Port FC away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Port FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Prachuap
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 54%, Port FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Prachuap) and 64% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 36%; Prachuap have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Prachuap's games and 64% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Prachuap's recent games and 64% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Port FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Port FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Port FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Port FC 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.04 xG and Port FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.82 / defence 1.27 against Port FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 28% | Draw 29% | Port FC 43%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 52%, Port FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.04 PPG, Port FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.