Prachuap 0-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Prachuap take on Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 28 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Prachuap against 1.80 for Port FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Prachuap lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 52% versus Port FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 48% | Port FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.08 xG and Port FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.911 / defence 0.757 | Port FC attack 0.939 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.219. Port FC's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Prachuap games / 42 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 36% | Draw 39% | Port FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.78 | Draw 2.56 | Port FC 4.00. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 40% | Port FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 36% | Draw 39% | Port FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Prachuap 1.08 / Port FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.911 / def 0.757 | Port FC attack 0.939 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Port FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Port FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 28 November 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Prachuap 0 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Port FC part of?
Prachuap vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 36% chance of winning, Port FC a 25% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Prachuap and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
Record (8 meetings): Prachuap 2W | Draws 3 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Port FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.91) and Port FC's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.94x) against Prachuap's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.77
39%
2.55
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Prachuap xG
Total xG
1.94
0.87
Port FC xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.87 for Port FC, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 16W 13D 13L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 19W 12D 11L from 42 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Prachuap against 1.64 for Port FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (11W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Port FC have gone 8W 4D 8L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.74 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 16W 13D 13L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Port FC have gone 19W 12D 11L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Port FC away?
Prachuap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.00 PPG; Port FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Port FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Prachuap
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 45%, Port FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Prachuap) and 45% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Port FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Prachuap's recent matches and 50% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Prachuap's recent games and 45% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Port FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Port FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Prachuap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Prachuap 0-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.08 xG and Port FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Prachuap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against Port FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 36% | Draw 39% | Port FC 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Port FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 48%, Port FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.45 PPG, Port FC 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.