Prachuap 1-1 Lampang FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Lampang FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sam Ao Stadium plays host to Prachuap versus Lampang FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 27 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Prachuap (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lampang FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lampang FC have posted 0W 2D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.29 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Prachuap against 0.40 for Lampang FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lampang FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 64% versus Lampang FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Prachuap 64% | Lampang FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.93 xG and Lampang FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.983 / defence 1.521 | Lampang FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.139. Lampang FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Prachuap games / 14 Lampang FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 49% | Draw 23% | Lampang FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Lampang FC 3.45. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 60% | Lampang FC 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Lampang FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 49% | Draw 23% | Lampang FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Prachuap 1.93 / Lampang FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.983 / def 1.521 | Lampang FC attack 0.836 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Lampang FC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Lampang FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Lampang FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Lampang FC?
Prachuap 1 - 1 Lampang FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Lampang FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Lampang FC part of?
Prachuap vs Lampang FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Lampang FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 49% chance of winning, Lampang FC a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Lampang FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Prachuap and Lampang FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Lampang FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lampang FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Lampang FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.98) and Lampang FC's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lampang FC's attack (0.84x) against Prachuap's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
49%
2.06
23%
4.43
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.37
1.45
Lampang FC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
4%
23.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Lampang FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Lampang FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.45 for Lampang FC, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Lampang FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Prachuap have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 3W 3D 8L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lampang FC's form line: 2W 2D 10L from 14 games, 0.57 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Prachuap against 0.57 for Lampang FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Lampang FC have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Lampang FC are on 0.79 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Lampang FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Lampang FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Lampang FC have gone 2W 2D 10L in their last 14 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Lampang FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.14 PPG; Lampang FC away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Prachuap
1
Draws
1
Lampang FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lampang FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 0, Lampang FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Lampang FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Lampang FC 4-3 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Lampang FC?
Lampang FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 71%, Lampang FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Prachuap and 71% for Lampang FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lampang FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Lampang FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Lampang FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Prachuap's games and 57% of Lampang FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Lampang FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Prachuap's matches and 71% of Lampang FC's.
Do Prachuap and Lampang FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Lampang FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Lampang FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Prachuap and Lampang FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.93 xG and Lampang FC 1.45 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.98 / defence 1.52 against Lampang FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.46, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 49% | Draw 23% | Lampang FC 29%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 64%, Lampang FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Lampang FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 0.86 PPG, Lampang FC 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lampang FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.