Port FC 3-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Port FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Ratchaburi travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 December 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port FC 1.60 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Port FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Port FC, 1 for Ratchaburi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 77% and Ratchaburi 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 64% | Ratchaburi 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.08 xG and Ratchaburi 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.437 / defence 1.124 | Ratchaburi attack 0.786 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.336. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.437 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Port FC games / 44 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 56% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 20%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Ratchaburi 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 25 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 56% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Port FC 2.08 / Ratchaburi 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.437 / def 1.124 | Ratchaburi attack 0.786 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Port FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Ratchaburi xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 25 December 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Port FC 3 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Port FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 56% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Port FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in?
Port FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.14
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.26
1.18
Ratchaburi xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
2%
40.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Port FC and 1.18 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 22W 12D 10L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 14W 15D 15L from 44 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port FC have posted 2.09 PPG from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 7D 11L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.23 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 22W 12D 10L in their last 44 games (1.77 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 14W 15D 15L in their last 44 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Port FC's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.09 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 77%, Ratchaburi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Port FC) and 32% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Port FC's games and 46% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Port FC's recent games and 32% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Ratchaburi 3-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.08 xG and Ratchaburi 1.18 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.44 / defence 1.12 against Ratchaburi attack 0.79 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 56% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 20%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 64%, Ratchaburi 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.