Police Tero 2-3 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Police Tero and Sukhothai FC meet at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 December 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Police Tero (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Police Tero have posted 4W 3D 3L at Boonyachinda Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Police Tero against 1.10 for Sukhothai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Police Tero have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Sukhothai FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Police Tero, 1 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Police Tero goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 70% and Sukhothai FC 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 65% | Sukhothai FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.50 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.895 / defence 1.330 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.841 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.304. Data: 43 Police Tero games / 43 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 38% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Police Tero if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 90% | Sukhothai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 38% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Police Tero 1.50 / Sukhothai FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.895 / def 1.330 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.841 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sukhothai FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC?
Police Tero 2 - 3 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 38% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Police Tero and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Sukhothai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Police Tero and Sukhothai FC in?
Police Tero (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Police Tero's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.84x) against Police Tero's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
38%
2.67
27%
3.71
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.96
1.46
Sukhothai FC xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.46 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Police Tero come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 13D 14L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (12W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Police Tero against 1.14 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Police Tero's home form reads 9W 9D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (3W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Police Tero are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.98 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Police Tero's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.71 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Police Tero or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Police Tero have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sukhothai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Police Tero
1
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Sukhothai FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 0, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Sukhothai FC 2-0 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Police Tero, 62% for Sukhothai FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Police Tero) and 48% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Police Tero's games and 62% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Police Tero's recent games and 48% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Police Tero 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Police Tero 2-3 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.50 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sukhothai FC outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.90 / defence 1.33 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 38% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 36%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 65%, Sukhothai FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.42 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.