Police Tero 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to Boonyachinda Stadium to take on Police Tero. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 games at Boonyachinda Stadium this term (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 3L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Police Tero 1.40 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Police Tero, 1 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Police Tero trading profile (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 53% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 42% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.25 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.001 / defence 1.130 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.887 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.021 / away 1.125. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Police Tero's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Police Tero games / 19 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 39% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Police Tero at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Police Tero offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Police Tero 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 39% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Police Tero 1.25 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.001 / def 1.130 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.887 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.021 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Police Tero 1 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 39% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (1 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W.
What form are Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Police Tero (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Police Tero's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.61
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.38
1.13
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.13 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Police Tero's recent record stands at 5W 8D 6L from 19 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 6L across 19 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.21 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Police Tero have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's away record stands at 0W 5D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.32 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Police Tero's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.88 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Police Tero have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Police Tero's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Police Tero
1
Draws
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 4 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 50%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Police Tero) and 38% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Police Tero's games and 75% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Police Tero's recent games and 38% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Police Tero and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.25 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.13 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 39% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 42%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.21 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.