Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Lamphun Warrior meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pattani have posted 1W 1D 2L at Rainbow Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pattani, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 1–3 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pattani half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 57% versus Lamphun Warrior 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 71% | Lamphun Warrior 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.67 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.617 / defence 1.033 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.163 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Pattani's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lamphun Warrior's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Pattani games / 37 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 13% | Draw 24% | Lamphun Warrior 63%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 7.69 | Draw 4.17 | Lamphun Warrior 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 25% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 13% | Draw 24% | Lamphun Warrior 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Pattani 0.67 / Lamphun Warrior 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.617 / def 1.033 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.163 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Lamphun Warrior xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 13% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 63% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pattani and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (1 meetings): Pattani 0W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior in?
Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.62x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (1.16x) against Pattani's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.7%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
13%
7.78
24%
4.09
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.42
1.75
Lamphun Warrior xG
7.78
13%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
51%
1.94
Win to Nil
2%
44.75
32%
3.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 15.6 | 13.7 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Pattani and 1.75 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Pattani have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lamphun Warrior are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pattani.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pattani have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattani at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Lamphun Warrior's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattani at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Pattani
0
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Lamphun Warrior?
From 1 meetings on record, Pattani have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattani and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-1 Pattani.
Who has won more matches between Pattani and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 25%, Lamphun Warrior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pattani) and 50% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 50%; Pattani have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pattani's recent matches and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pattani's recent games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.