Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Port FC at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 6W 0D 2L from 8 Thai League 1 appearances (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.50 PPG, Port FC 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 57% versus Port FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 43% | Port FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.58 xG and Port FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.160 / defence 0.988 | Port FC attack 1.125 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.156. Port FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 14 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 25% | Port FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Port FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 25% | Port FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.58 / Port FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.160 / def 0.988 | Port FC attack 1.125 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Port FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 44% chance of winning, Port FC a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (1.16) and Port FC's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
44%
2.26
25%
4.05
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.86
1.28
Port FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.28 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 6W 3D 5L from 14 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 4L across 14 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.50 PPG, Port FC on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.57 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Port FC have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Port FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 2.50 PPG; Port FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Port FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Port FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nong Bua Pitchaya at 67%, Port FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 67% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Port FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 67% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's matches and 67% of Port FC's.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Port FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.58 xG and Port FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Port FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.29, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 25% | Port FC 31%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 43%, Port FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.50 PPG, Port FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.