Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Muangthong United make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nong Bua Pitchaya have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 1.80 for Muangthong United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nong Bua Pitchaya lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Muangthong United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% and Muangthong United 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Muangthong United 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.25 xG and Muangthong United 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.122 / defence 1.032 | Muangthong United attack 0.765 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.072. Data: 20 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 20 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 46% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 25%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Muangthong United 4.00. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Muangthong United 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 46% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.25 / Muangthong United 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.122 / def 1.032 | Muangthong United attack 0.765 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Muangthong United xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 46% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
Record (1 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 0W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Muangthong United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack at 1.12x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (0.77x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.42
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.09
0.84
Muangthong United xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.84 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 6D 6L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Nong Bua Pitchaya against 1.65 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 7W 0D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Muangthong United in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 games (1.50 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Muangthong United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 2.33 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
4
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Muangthong United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 56%, Muangthong United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 33% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Muangthong United in 33%; Muangthong United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 44% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 33% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nong Bua Pitchaya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United finished level at 0-0 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.25 xG and Muangthong United 0.84 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Muangthong United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Muangthong United attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 46% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 25%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 40%, Muangthong United 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Muangthong United's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.50 PPG, Muangthong United 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.