Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 36%, yet in-form Chonburi FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chonburi FC make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Chonburi FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chonburi FC are 0.70 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W, Chonburi FC 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 58% versus Chonburi FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.24 xG and Chonburi FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.843 / defence 1.095 | Chonburi FC attack 1.019 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.107. Data: 50 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 50 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 36% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Chonburi FC 2.78. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Chonburi FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 36% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.24 / Chonburi FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.843 / def 1.095 | Chonburi FC attack 1.019 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Chonburi FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 36% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 2W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.84) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.02x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.50
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.48
1.24
Chonburi FC xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.24 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 15W 13D 22L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 23W 11D 16L from 50 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nong Bua Pitchaya.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 15W 13D 22L in their last 50 games (1.16 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 23W 11D 16L in their last 50 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Chonburi FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.50 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%, Chonburi FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 54% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 58% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 54% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nong Bua Pitchaya edge out Chonburi FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Chonburi FC 2-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.24 xG and Chonburi FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Chonburi FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 36% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 36%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.