Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Port FC at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Nakhon Pathom welcome Port FC to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nakhon Pathom 0.80 PPG, Port FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nakhon Pathom, 2 for Port FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nakhon Pathom trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Port FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 65% and Port FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 63% | Port FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.796 / defence 1.452 | Port FC attack 1.071 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.279. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Nakhon Pathom games / 57 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 23% | Draw 22% | Port FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Port FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 80% | Port FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 23% | Draw 22% | Port FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.23 / Port FC 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.796 / def 1.452 | Port FC attack 1.071 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Port FC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Nakhon Pathom 2 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 23% chance of winning, Port FC a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Port FC?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 1 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Port FC in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
23%
4.36
22%
4.47
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.22
1.99
Port FC xG
4.36
23%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
3%
31.86
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.99 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Pathom's recent record stands at 13W 15D 29L from 57 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 13L across 57 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Pathom heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nakhon Pathom have managed 8W 6D 14L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 10W 11D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.04 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Port FC in 68%.
Last 57 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Port FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 13W 15D 29L in their last 57 games (0.95 PPG), while Port FC have gone 27W 17D 13L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.07 PPG; Port FC away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Port FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
2
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Port FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Port FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Pathom at 71%, Port FC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Nakhon Pathom and 61% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 71% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 61% of Port FC's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Port FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Port FC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Pathom and Port FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Nakhon Pathom and Port FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.99 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.80 / defence 1.45 against Port FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 23% | Draw 22% | Port FC 55%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Port FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.