Nakhon Pathom 0-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United meet at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Pathom have posted 4W 3D 3L at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Buriram United (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 1.30 PPG clear of Nakhon Pathom in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.60 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Buriram United in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nakhon Pathom, 1 for Buriram United and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Buriram United — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 77% and Buriram United 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 62% | Buriram United 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.16 xG and Buriram United 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.810 / defence 1.120 | Buriram United attack 1.336 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.218. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Nakhon Pathom games / 56 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 24% | Draw 24% | Buriram United 52%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Buriram United 1.92. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 70% | Buriram United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 24% | Draw 24% | Buriram United 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.16 / Buriram United 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.810 / def 1.120 | Buriram United attack 1.336 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Buriram United xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Nakhon Pathom 0 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 24% chance of winning, Buriram United a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 0.81x the league average against Buriram United's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.34x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
24%
4.20
24%
4.22
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.98
1.82
Buriram United xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
4%
25.98
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.82 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 8W 8D 10L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 17W 8D 1L from 26 games, 2.27 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Pathom.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 7W 5D 1L from 13 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.19 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 17W 8D 1L in their last 26 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.46 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Nakhon Pathom or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Pathom have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Buriram United in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Buriram United have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 4-1 on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Buriram United have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Nakhon Pathom, 69% for Buriram United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Nakhon Pathom and 54% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 69% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 54% of Buriram United's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Pathom 0-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.16 xG and Buriram United 1.82 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against Buriram United attack 1.34 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 24% | Draw 24% | Buriram United 52%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 62%, Buriram United 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.