Nakhon Pathom 1-3 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Nakhon Pathom welcome BG Pathum United to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Pathom — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Pathom have posted 3W 3D 4L at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BG Pathum United stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Nakhon Pathom) versus 1.50 (BG Pathum United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BG Pathum United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nakhon Pathom, 0 for BG Pathum United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Nakhon Pathom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 71% and BG Pathum United 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 57% | BG Pathum United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.08 xG and BG Pathum United 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.720 / defence 1.173 | BG Pathum United attack 1.026 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.137. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Nakhon Pathom games / 58 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 28% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 42%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | BG Pathum United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 60% | BG Pathum United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 28% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.08 / BG Pathum United 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.720 / def 1.173 | BG Pathum United attack 1.026 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.37
BG Pathum United xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 3 BG Pathum United.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 28% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 1W | Draws 0 | BG Pathum United 0W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Pathom's attack rating (0.72) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
28%
3.54
30%
3.38
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.44
1.37
BG Pathum United xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
13.89
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.37 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 8W 9D 11L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
BG Pathum United's form line: 13W 9D 6L from 28 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Pathom.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 6W 4D 4L from 14 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.86 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; BG Pathum United in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Current Season
BG Pathum United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 13W 9D 6L in their last 28 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or BG Pathum United away?
BG Pathum United's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.36 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: BG Pathum United have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2025, when BG Pathum United won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
3
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, BG Pathum United have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-4 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 71%, BG Pathum United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Nakhon Pathom) and 43% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 57% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Nakhon Pathom's recent games and 43% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Pathom and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Nakhon Pathom 1-3 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.08 xG and BG Pathum United 1.37 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. BG Pathum United outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against BG Pathum United attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 28% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 42%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 57%, BG Pathum United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.