Lamphun Warrior 3-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamphun Warriors Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Lamphun Warriors Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Lamphun Warrior, 1.00 for Nong Bua Pitchaya — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lamphun Warrior 2W, Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lamphun Warrior 33% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 0% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.35 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.962 / defence 0.933 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.721 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.251. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Lamphun Warrior games / 3 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Draw 20% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 11%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Draw 20% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.35 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.962 / def 0.933 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.721 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 3 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 70% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (2 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.96) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.72x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
70%
1.43
20%
5.13
11%
9.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.20
0.84
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
9.50
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
9%
10.53
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
99.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.84 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.00 for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 0.67 scored and 3.00 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Lamphun Warrior or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Lamphun Warrior) and 33% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Lamphun Warrior) and 100% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 33% of games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 100% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 3-3 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.35 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.84 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.72 / defence 1.38, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 70% | Draw 20% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 11%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 0%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.33 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamphun Warrior scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nong Bua Pitchaya scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.