Lamphun Warrior 0-5 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Thai League 1 appearances (0.00 PPG). Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 700th Anniversary Stadium this season.
Muangthong United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.00 for Muangthong United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 30% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lamphun Warrior 10% | Muangthong United 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 10% | Muangthong United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 0.82 xG and Muangthong United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.590 / defence 1.145 | Muangthong United attack 0.793 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.150. Lamphun Warrior's attack strength of 0.590 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Lamphun Warrior games / 40 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 27% | Draw 33% | Muangthong United 39%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Muangthong United 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 0% | Muangthong United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 27% | Draw 33% | Muangthong United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Lamphun Warrior 0.82 / Muangthong United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.590 / def 1.145 | Muangthong United attack 0.793 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Muangthong United xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 5 Muangthong United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 27% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 0.59x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (0.79x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
27%
3.67
33%
3.01
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
1.86
1.04
Muangthong United xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 16.3 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.04 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 4L across 10 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Muangthong United by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.60 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 10% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Muangthong United away?
Muangthong United's away record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 0.00 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 0-5 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Muangthong United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Muangthong United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Lamphun Warrior) and 67% (Muangthong United) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Lamphun Warrior and 67% for Muangthong United.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 100% of games; Muangthong United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 67% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 67% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Muangthong United run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Lamphun Warrior 0-5 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.82 xG and Muangthong United 1.04 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Muangthong United outscored their 1.04 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.59 / defence 1.15 against Muangthong United attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 27% | Draw 33% | Muangthong United 39%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 10%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 10% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Muangthong United's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.