Lamphun Warrior 0-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Chiangrai United to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Chiangrai United's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.03 xG and Chiangrai United 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Chiangrai United attack 1.010 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.084. Data: 1 Lamphun Warrior games / 31 Chiangrai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 41%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 0.9 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.03 / Chiangrai United 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Chiangrai United attack 1.010 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 30% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
30%
3.29
28%
3.55
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.29
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.26 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Chiangrai United in 0%.
Defensively: Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Chiangrai United in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Lamphun Warrior or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 0% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 0% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Lamphun Warrior 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Lamphun Warrior 0-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.03 xG and Chiangrai United 1.26 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Chiangrai United attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 41%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 0%, Chiangrai United 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamphun Warrior shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.